Factories face weaker demand and higher costs in July as Iran war grinds on

Global factory surveys for July 2026 show weaker new orders and higher input costs across multiple regions. What the numbers actually say Turkey’s manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.1 in June from 49.8 in May, crossing below the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. US manufacturing PMI hit 54% in May 2026, a four-year high. Even while that figure was being celebrated, some 42% of US manufacturer survey comments in May referenced the Iran conflict directly, flagging oil price volatility and supply continuity as live concerns. July data confirms that weaker demand and elevated costs have persisted through the summer, and the breakdown of a mid-July ceasefire has removed the most obvious off-ramp from the situation. The war’s economic footprint The conflict began on February 28, 2026, when US and Israeli forces launched airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites. The Iran war has produced the largest global oil supply disruption on record. Global commodity prices have surged broadly as Middle East instability feeds through to markets that price in geopolitical risk. Turkey’s PMI reading of 47.1 reflects the squeeze from both sides: disrupted inputs f...