European natural gas prices rise as Iran-Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz fail to deliver breakthrough

European natural gas prices climbed in early August as talks between Iran and Oman over shipping arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz failed to generate any meaningful optimism about a return to normal LNG flows. Dutch TTF benchmark prices, the standard gauge for European gas trading, hovered between €56 and €61 per megawatt-hour around August 10, reflecting a market that has largely priced in the expectation that this crisis isn’t ending anytime soon. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula through which roughly 19-20% of all global LNG trade passes. When that highway gets blocked, or even partially restricted, the ripple effects reach every gas-importing nation on the continent. What the negotiations actually produced Iranian and Omani officials have reportedly been working toward a framework agreement for managing shipping traffic through the Strait. The talks are described as being in their “final stages,” which in diplomatic language can mean anything from days to months. The critical detail, though, is what Iranian officials have explicitly ruled out. A full reopening of the waterway is not part of the current discussions. Whatever a...