Euro area consumer confidence hits -15.9 in July, topping forecasts as sentiment slowly recovers

Europe’s consumers are feeling slightly less gloomy. The European Commission’s flash estimate for July 2026 put the euro area consumer confidence indicator at -15.9, clearing the consensus forecast of -17.0 and improving meaningfully from June’s confirmed reading of -17.7. Three months of steady gains The July print is the third consecutive monthly improvement since the index bottomed out at -20.6 in April 2026. May came in at -19, June at -17.7, and now July at -15.9. That is a roughly five-point swing in three months. The long-run historical average for this indicator stretches back to 1985 and sits at -9.45. So even with the recent rebound, euro area households are still about six and a half points below what passes for “normal” sentiment over four decades of data. The record low was -27.5 in September 2022, a period when energy costs were spiking across the continent following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and inflation was running at multi-decade highs. The current reading, while still negative, is comfortably above that crisis trough. The data was released by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, known as DG ECFIN, on July 23. It is ...