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England and the Democratic Republic of the Congo meet on July 1, 2026, in a FIFA World Cup round-of-32 knockout match at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. Kickoff is set for noon local time, 4:00 PM GMT, and the stakes are simple: win or go home.
England arrives as the clear favorite, having topped Group L to reach the knockout stage. DR Congo, nicknamed the Leopards, got here the harder way, advancing from Group K as one of the best third-placed teams, including a draw against Portugal.
The numbers say England, but football rarely reads the script
Opta’s models put England’s win probability somewhere between 74% and 82%. DR Congo’s chances sit in the 11.3% to 18.2% range, depending on the model.
Thomas Tuchel’s side enters the match with a defensive injury concern. Reece James and Jarell Quansah are both unavailable, leaving England’s backline looking patchwork at precisely the moment the tournament gets serious.
DR Congo has operated in a back-three or 5-3-2 system throughout the tournament, a shape designed not to dominate possession but to sit deep, stay organized, and hit fast on the break.
What England’s lineup might look like
With the injuries at the back, Tuchel’s most likely setup is a 4-2-3-1. The two holding midfielders will be doing a lot of the defensive heavy lifting, essentially covering for the personnel gaps at fullback.
BBC Sport put the lineup question to fans directly, asking followers to pick their preferred England starting eleven for the match.
Why this match matters beyond the scoreline
For DR Congo, reaching the round of 32 at a World Cup is already a significant achievement. Their draw against Portugal in the group stage demonstrated they can hold their own against quality opposition.
The Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta is a modern, enclosed venue with a retractable roof, which means the July heat is less of a factor than it might be at some of the other 2026 host sites.
Atlanta itself has a significant African diaspora community, which means the crowd may be more balanced than England’s status as favorites would typically suggest.
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