ECB leans toward approving UniCredit’s €43 billion Commerzbank takeover bid

Europe’s banking regulator appears ready to greenlight one of the continent’s largest cross-border banking mergers in years. An internal ECB document concluded there are “no grounds to object” on prudential grounds to UniCredit’s hostile bid for Germany’s Commerzbank. The document was prepared ahead of the ECB Supervisory Board’s July 2026 review, though a final decision isn’t expected until the regulator completes its full assessment of the application, likely in September or October 2026. The deal so far UniCredit launched its €43B exchange offer for Commerzbank back in March 2026, following a year of steadily building its position. The ECB had already authorized the Italian lender to increase its stake to 29.9% in March 2025, and the formal voluntary exchange offer for shares went live in May 2026. By July 2026, UniCredit had secured roughly 48% of Commerzbank’s economic shares. Only about 2.7% of shares were tendered by genuine independent investors. The rest of UniCredit’s position was built through derivative instruments and direct market purchases rather than enthusiastic shareholder participation. If the deal clears all regulatory hurdles and settlement completes as planned...