Dogecoin nears historic bottom zone as $0.85 target reappears

Dogecoin has returned to a historically watched on-chain accumulation area after a drop of more than 5% on Wednesday renewed pressure on the meme coin.

According to Alphractal, Dogecoin is now trading close to the lower area of its CVDD Channel, a model the analytics firm uses to track long-term value zones by measuring coin movement against both dollar value and time held. The firm said the current area, near $0.10 to $0.11, has appeared in past cycles before large DOGE rebounds.

Dogecoin revisits a long-term value zone

Alphractal described the CVDD Channel as a thermodynamic floor model that estimates a structural cost basis for an asset. The model weighs each coin movement by its value and the number of days since that coin last moved, rather than relying only on standard trading volume.

In Alphractal’s view, Dogecoin’s move toward the lower CVDD bands has historically matched deep accumulation periods. The analytics firm cited late 2014, mid-2020, and mid-2023 as past examples. After those phases, Alphractal said DOGE later produced gains of about 25,000%, 18,000%, and 500%, respectively.

The firm also said Dogecoin’s long sideways period should not be viewed only as weakness. According to Alphractal, the price action shows a rebuilding of DOGE’s cost basis over time, with holders absorbing supply quietly while public attention remains limited.

Alphractal says DOGE narrative may arrive later

Alphractal said the lack of a strong Dogecoin story in the current market does not break from previous cycles. The firm argued that major narratives often appear after accumulation periods, not before them.

Because the CVDD model tracks value-days rather than raw transaction volume, Alphractal said traditional volume metrics may miss some of this activity. The firm described the current setup as quiet absorption, based on the structure shown in its DOGE chart.

Alphractal also linked Dogecoin’s long market history to the model’s relevance. The firm said DOGE has the longest CVDD record among meme assets and remains the largest, most liquid, and most widely distributed meme coin.

Upper CVDD band places DOGE target near $0.85

According to Alphractal, its Alpha CVDD model has identified every major Dogecoin market top in earlier cycles. The firm said the current upper end of the Alpha CVDD band is near $0.85.

From the current price area, Alphractal said that level would represent a possible 7.7-fold move if DOGE repeats its prior cycle behavior. The analytics firm also projected that Dogecoin could deliver a 3x move before AI-themed meme coin narratives become the main market focus.

Alphractal added that the market currently treats DOGE as a weak meme asset, while its chart structure resembles earlier bottom areas.

Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez said the TD Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal on Dogecoin. Several market observers also said DOGE may be nearing a major breakout, although those views remain tied to technical chart setups rather than confirmed price movement.