Deutsche Bank sees gold fair value at $4,700 per ounce, but the real story is what comes next

Deutsche Bank just did the financial equivalent of saying “I’m not bearish, I’m just less bullish.” The bank’s commodity team, led by analyst Michael Hsueh, slashed its Q3 2026 gold price target by 22%, bringing it down to $4,300 per ounce from a previous forecast around $5,500. But here’s the thing: even the reduced forecast range of $4,300 to $4,800 still implies gold is fairly valued near $4,700, a level that would have seemed absurd just a couple of years ago. The revision came on June 23, and it tells a more nuanced story than a simple downgrade. Gold hit an all-time high of roughly $5,110.50 earlier in 2026, with peaks approaching $5,405, before correcting back to the $4,000 to $4,100 range. Why the cut, and why it still looks bullish The short answer: the Federal Reserve. Higher real yields have put pressure on gold, which pays no interest and therefore becomes relatively less attractive when bonds start offering meaningful returns. Deutsche Bank’s bear case, which envisions gold dropping to a floor of $3,800 per ounce, hinges on the Fed raising rates three to four times. But the bank isn’t betting on that outcome as its base case. Instead, Deutsche Bank still sees a path to...