4 hours ago
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Democrats failed to block Trump’s military actions in Iran, and the US-Iran permanent peace deal market for April 22 now sits at 30.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Democrats’ inability to constrain Trump’s use of military force has traders doubtful about diplomatic progress. The April 22 peace deal market holds at 30.5% YES. The April 30 market is at 46.5% YES, meaning traders price in more room for a deal beyond the nearest deadline.
The biggest move is in the May 31 market, which jumped from 31% to 64.5% YES over the past week. Traders appear to expect some catalyst for negotiations in the coming month. Total USDC volume across these markets is $698,114.
Why it matters
The diplomatic meeting market is static at 2% YES, showing continued skepticism about near-term diplomatic contact. The order book is thin enough that $408 could move it 5 points, so any real news could cause sharp swings.
The Democrats’ failure to check Trump’s military authority means there is no legislative pressure toward de-escalation. At 15¢, a YES share for the peace deal before April 22 pays 6.67x if it resolves. Buying that contract requires believing a sudden diplomatic breakthrough happens within a week.
What to watch
CENTCOM statements, diplomatic announcements from intermediaries like Pakistan, or any sign of renewed talks or shifts in military posture would move these markets quickly.
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