CryptoQuant CEO declares Bitcoin bear market over as price metric mirrors 2023 recovery

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju declared on August 25 that “the Bitcoin bear cycle is over,” backing the call with a proprietary on-chain indicator that just flashed the same signal it produced in January 2023. That earlier signal preceded a rally that carried Bitcoin from roughly $16,000 to an all-time high above $73,000. The timing is notable. Bitcoin recently broke out of a consolidation range between $62,000 and $67,000, surging to approximately $79,400. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded around $1.92 billion in net inflows over five trading days during the move, suggesting institutional capital is betting that the bottom is in. What the indicator actually measures CryptoQuant’s PnL Index, the metric at the center of Ju’s call, is not a single data point. It aggregates three on-chain profitability measures: MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value), NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), and SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) across different holder cohorts. When you blend all three and watch them cross above their 365-day moving average, you get a signal that historically lines up with the transition from bear to bull territory. That crossing just happened. Ju also pointed to the firm’s broader ...