Consumer inflation expectations cool in July, but rate hike fears persist

Consumers are feeling slightly less panicky about inflation. They’re still bracing for higher interest rates, though, which tells you everything about where sentiment sits right now. The Conference Board’s July 2026 Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 90.8, shedding 1.4 points from a revised 92.2 in June. The survey, conducted between July 1 and July 22, paints a picture of an economy where people aren’t exactly optimistic but aren’t running for the exits either. The numbers behind the mood shift The Expectations Index held steady at 74.7, which suggests consumers aren’t forecasting any dramatic deterioration in economic conditions over the near term. Recession fears remain low overall. A full 61.3% of respondents expect interest rates to climb over the next 12 months. That’s barely budged from June’s 61.5%. So while inflation expectations have moderated somewhat, consumers clearly believe the Fed isn’t done tightening, or at least isn’t about to start cutting. “Consumer confidence moderated slightly in July, continuing a general downward sloping trajectory since late 2021,” said Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board. The Present Situation Index also declined, ...