Columbia Threadneedle’s Al-Hussainy sees no relief coming for the long end of the yield curve

Edward Al-Hussainy, the total return bond portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, isn’t mincing words about what’s happening at the far end of the US Treasury curve. In a recent Bloomberg Real Yield appearance, he called the Federal Reserve’s communication strategy “extraordinarily muddled” and argued that long-term yields aren’t coming down anytime soon, regardless of what the central bank does with short-term rates. Secular forces are running the show Al-Hussainy described the long end of the yield curve as “hostage to a lot of secular factors.” Those forces include ballooning fiscal deficits, a relentless pace of government debt issuance, and a significant term premium, the extra yield investors demand for locking up money over longer periods. As of June 30, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield sat at 4.44%. The 30-year yield was at 4.93%. Columbia Threadneedle’s own 2026 outlook projects the 10-year yield hovering around 4%, with investment-grade corporate credit offering roughly 5%. The firm sees bonds as compelling total-return vehicles this year, with inflation expectations running near 3%. What the Fed’s muddled messaging means for markets Al-Hussainy’s critique...