Colombia’s internal conflict shapes presidential election as violence surges

Colombia’s presidential runoff on June 21, 2026, is shaping up as a referendum on war and peace. Right-wing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella faces left-wing senator Iván Cepeda in a contest defined almost entirely by the country’s escalating armed conflict, a crisis that has worsened considerably under President Gustavo Petro’s watch.

The first-round vote on May 31 was razor-close. De la Espriella pulled 43.7% to Cepeda’s 40.9%, setting up a runoff that will determine whether Colombia pivots toward military confrontation or sticks with the negotiation-first approach that has defined Petro’s presidency.

A peace strategy that produced more war

Armed group membership has ballooned from roughly 15,000 in 2022 to about 22,000 by 2025. That’s a nearly 50% increase during a presidency built on the promise of dialogue.

The numbers break down across several factions. The ELN accounts for approximately 6,000 members. FARC dissidents number around 5,000. And Clan del Golfo fields roughly 7,500 fighters.

The International Red Cross has flagged the current situation as the worst level of conflict in a decade. Over 10 million Colombians are currently classified as victims of the ongoing violence, a staggering figure for a country of about 52 million people.

Violence bleeds into the campaign itself

Since January 2025, more than 150 violent events have targeted political figures. These include targeted assassinations, drone strikes, and kidnappings.

The ELN declared a temporary ceasefire for the election period. Other factions did not follow suit.

De la Espriella advocates a hardline military response. Cepeda wants to continue the peace negotiation framework. The winner takes office on August 7, 2026.

What prediction markets and investors are watching

This election has drawn attention on prediction markets like Polymarket, reflecting concern about what each candidate’s approach means for Colombia’s economic stability, its currency, and the broader investment climate in Latin America. Colombia is a major oil producer and the world’s largest cocaine exporter, two sectors where governance and security policy have direct market consequences.

Colombia already has one of the higher crypto adoption rates in the region, driven partly by peso instability and partly by remittance flows.

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