CLARITY Act odds hit record-low 27% after Senate delay

Polymarket traders cut the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 to a record-low 27% after the Senate postponed action on the crypto market structure bill. Summary CLARITY Act passage odds fell to 27%, their lowest level since the Polymarket market opened. Senate leaders prioritized Russia sanctions and federal nominations before the scheduled Aug. 8 recess. Senators Ruben Gallego and Thom Tillis are preparing a bipartisan ethics counteroffer for the White House. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency could write crypto rules without Congress if negotiations fail. CLARITY Act odds fall as Senate changes priorities The Polymarket contract asking whether crypto market structure legislation will become law in 2026 fell to 27% on July 29. The price represents traders’ assessment rather than an independent forecast, but it shows growing doubts about the bill’s shrinking legislative window. Source: Polymarket Galaxy Digital has also lowered its estimated probability of passage to 30% as negotiations extend further into the Senate calendar. As crypto.news reported, Senate Majority Leader John Thune postponed action on the CLARITY Act while lawmakers considered a Russia sanctions pa...