CLARITY Act delay pushes passage bets into 2027

Prediction markets are shifting expectations for the CLARITY Act into 2027 after Senate leaders declined to start the procedural process needed for a vote before the August recess. Summary Kalshi odds for the bill taking effect before July 2027 fell 8 points to 41%. Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not file a cloture motion on Tuesday. Contracts now assign a 65% chance that the bill becomes law before January 2028. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said crypto “will be fine” without immediate congressional action. CLARITY Act odds shift toward 2027 Kalshi traders have become more doubtful that Congress will complete work on the CLARITY Act in 2026 as the Senate’s pre-recess window narrows. A contract tracking whether the legislation will take effect before July 1, 2027, dropped eight percentage points to 41% on Tuesday. The decline suggests traders increasingly expect the process to extend beyond 2026, although the contract does not measure passage during 2026 alone. The probability of the bill taking effect before Oct. 1, 2027, stood at 58%. Odds for enactment before Jan. 1, 2028, rose to 65%, showing that bettors still expect the legislation to advance over a longer timeframe. More th...