China-US tensions rise over export controls ahead of Xi-Trump meeting

China and the United States are experiencing heightened tensions over export controls in the lead-up to a scheduled meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald J. Trump next month. The latest friction arises as both countries engage in a broader trade and technology confrontation, with each imposing export controls and sanctions on key sectors. Recently, China has tightened restrictions on drone exports and other critical technologies to the U.S., while also responding to American measures targeting Chinese telecommunications and other strategic areas. This exchange of retaliatory measures highlights a managed escalation in the ongoing dispute. Market participants appear to be interpreting these developments as potentially decreasing the likelihood of Xi’s visit to the U.S. before the end of 2026. Currently, the market pricing reflects a 93.5% probability that Xi will visit the U.S. before December 31, 2026, slightly down from 94% the previous day. Observers note that strategic and diplomatic maneuvers in the coming months could significantly influence these odds. The upcoming meeting between Xi and Trump is seen as a critical juncture for U.S.-China rela...