Chicago PMI climbs to 57.6, beating forecasts and signaling trouble for crypto’s rate-cut dreams

The Chicago Business Barometer, better known as the Chicago PMI, came in at 57.6 for July, topping the consensus forecast of roughly 56 and edging past June’s reading of 56.7. For anyone keeping score at home, that’s three consecutive months above the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. Before the Chicago PMI broke above 50, it had spent more than 25 consecutive months in contraction territory. Then the index didn’t just recover. It surged to 62.7 in May, a multi-year high that caught most economists off guard. June saw a pullback to 56.7, which still beat forecasts in the 55.1 to 55.7 range. Now July’s 57.6 reading suggests the May spike wasn’t a fluke but the beginning of a genuine trend. The Chicago PMI is produced by ISM Chicago in partnership with MNI, and it functions as a leading indicator for the national ISM Manufacturing PMI. When Chicago’s numbers move, national data tends to follow. The turnaround is especially notable given the headwinds the manufacturing sector has faced. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have kept energy prices elevated, which typically squeezes manufacturing margins. The fact that expansion is holding despite those pressures su...