Can crypto recover if US inflation keeps rate hike bets alive?

The US jobs report strengthened the case for a December rate increase just as investors withdrew $1.28 billion from spot Bitcoin ETFs in a week. Tuesday’s inflation release gives traders a new test, but a gap in last year’s data means much of the report will have to be read month to month. Summary US employers added 165,000 jobs in October, giving markets a reason to reassess the path of interest rates before the December Federal Reserve meeting. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.28 billion in net outflows from 2 to 6 November, despite one positive session. Friday’s $411.9 million net withdrawal included a $403 million outflow at BlackRock’s IBIT and a $42.8 million inflow at Fidelity’s FBTC. The October CPI release is due on 10 November at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern time, or 7 p.m. in India. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will omit 12-month changes where the October 2025 comparison is missing, making monthly readings particularly important. Bitcoin enters CPI week with two sources of pressure. The October jobs report showed 165,000 new payrolls, while US spot Bitcoin ETF flows turned sharply negative after a brief midweek recovery. Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on 9 November, ...