Can Bitcoin price break out of the ascending channel toward $74K?

Bitcoin is trading at $72,330 on April 13, pressing the upper trendline of a 4H ascending channel that has been building since the late March lows near $65,000. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of $786 million last week, led by BlackRock’s IBIT at $612 million across five trading days, provide the structural demand backdrop for the move.

Bitcoin (BTC) price is trading at $72,330 on April 13, up 0.65% on the 4H chart, as it presses the upper trendline of an ascending channel in place since the late March lows near $65,000. The MA ribbon reflects the recovery: SMA 20 at $72,056, SMA 50 at $70,980, SMA 100 at $69,060, and SMA 200 at $69,877 are all stacked in order beneath current price, consistent with a recovering trend structure. The 4H MACD histogram reads at -107.94, still negative but trending less so across recent sessions, indicating momentum is improving rather than reversing outright.

The 4H chart shows Bitcoin constructing a textbook ascending channel since the late March lows, with consecutive higher lows building from the $65,000 zone as the MA ribbon progressively curled into a bullish order. The upper boundary of the channel aligns with the $72,600 session high printed April 13. The annotated $70,000 level sits near the channel’s lower boundary and has acted as the structural floor throughout the move.

The negative MACD histogram at -107.94 adds a layer of caution: the session is recovering but the 4H momentum cross is not yet confirmed to the upside, meaning a sustained push above $72,600 would need volume to back it. Price has recovered from the Sunday gap-down triggered by the collapse of U.S.-Iran peace talks and President Trump’s Strait of Hormuz blockade order, which briefly pressured Bitcoin to $70,741 at the Monday open.

Analyst Michael van de Poppe of MN Trading Capital wrote on X on April 4 that “the longer the range persists, the heavier the breakout becomes,” adding that he expected a push above $71,000. Bitcoin has since extended well past that level within the ascending channel.

Key Levels: Support, Resistance, and Price Targets

The immediate resistance is $72,600, the upper channel trendline and session high. A confirmed 4H close above it would clear the channel boundary and open the path toward $74,000, the next key resistance. An extended move above $74,000 targets $76,000, which aligns with the neckline of the broader double bottom structure on the daily timeframe.

On the downside, the SMA 20 at $72,056 is the first support. A 4H close below it shifts focus to the SMA 50 at $70,980, and then to $70,000, the annotated structural floor on the chart. A daily close below $70,000 invalidates the ascending channel pattern and opens $69,060 as the next support.

Invalidation: a daily close below $70,000.

On-Chain and Market Data Context

Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $786 million in total net inflows last week, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $612 million of that across five trading days. IBIT now holds 790,808 BTC worth approximately $57.2 billion, and year-to-date net inflows sit at $1.5 billion despite a 26% price decline from the 2026 peak near $97,000, per Arkham data. On April 9, a single session of $358 million in net inflows, driven by IBIT’s $269 million contribution, reversed two consecutive days of outflows and confirmed renewed institutional demand at current price levels.

Macro Context: Geopolitical Pressure Into FOMC

The Iran escalation and Friday’s CPI print, which showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% in March, are the key headwinds. Bitcoin opened April 13 at $70,741 before recovering intraday, holding the ascending channel structure above $70,000. The next critical macro event is the FOMC meeting on April 29. Rate cut probability rose from 11.8% a week prior to 29.8% following the temporary ceasefire on April 9, providing a monetary tailwind that helps explain the speed of the institutional ETF accumulation at current levels.

If Bitcoin holds the ascending channel and secures a 4H close above $72,600, $74,000 becomes the immediate target, with $76,000 as the extended objective. A loss of $70,000 on a daily close basis shifts the near-term thesis bearish.