BTC supply in profit eyes 60%, but analysis hints recovery may ‘roll back over’

Bitcoin (BTC) investors are back in aggregate profit, but onchain data suggests it’s too early to confirm a new bull market.Key points:Bitcoin supply profitability is improving, but the trend must prove its staying power before confirming a market recovery, says CryptoQuant.Supply in profit is now approaching 60%, up from its 2026 low near 46% less than a month ago.Long-term holder onchain losses continue to dominate — a caveat in a bullish recovery. Bitcoin profit metrics risk second false breakoutAccording to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin supply in profit rebounded above the 50% mark in July.Bitcoin supply in profit. Source: CryptoQuant“Bitcoin’s Supply in Profit (%), the share of Bitcoin worth more than its acquisition price, has climbed to 57.5% as of July 22, up from 46.2% on June 30, the 2026 low,” CryptoQuant contributor thechessONCHAIN summarized.Bitcoin supply in profit data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuantWith nearly 60% of the BTC supply now in profit, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) of long-term holders (LTHs) is also improving. LTHs are entities whose Bitcoin has remained dormant for at least six months. SOPR measures the proportion of LTH coins...