Brazil Election Polymarket Odds: Can Lula Close the Gap?

Brazil election Polymarket odds now favor Flávio Bolsonaro for the presidency. Traders price him at 84.8% against 16% for incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47.1% of the vote, ahead of Lula at 45.1%. The two meet in a runoff on October 25, and Polymarket has drawn more than $174 million in volume. These prices are market-implied probabilities, not polls or official forecasts. The vote count is an official result, so the two figures measure different things. 🇧🇷 BRAZIL • RESULTS2026 Brazilian Presidential Election 🧮 99.8 % counted 🅿️ F. Bolsonaro (PL): 47.1 ➡️⭐️ Lula (PT): 45.1 ➡️⤴️ Cury (Avante): 2.9🐅 Santos (MISSĀO): 2.25️⃣ Caiado (PSD): 2.2📙 Zema (NOVO): 0.3… Numbers in %———#Brasil #Brazil #Eleições #Eleições2026 pic.twitter.com/4PfSHD1bcS — Elections Stats (@ElectionsStats) October 5, 2026 Put Your Money Where Your Mouth is On Polymarket How Did Bolsonaro Finish Ahead of Lula in Round One? With nearly all votes counted, Bolsonaro received 47.1%, or about 56.1 million votes. Lula took 45.1%, or about 53.8 million. Lula’s share fell 3.3 points from 2022, while turnout reached 78.6%. The rest of the field split about 7.6% of the vote...