Booking Holdings CFO says even AI’s biggest spenders are guessing on returns

The companies writing the biggest checks for artificial intelligence may not know what they are buying. That, at least, is the view of Booking Holdings CFO Ewout Steenbergen. Speaking at Fortune’s AIQ Summit at the New York Stock Exchange, Steenbergen argued that the hyperscalers building large language models have no firm grip on their return on investment. “They have maybe some assumptions and some hypothesis, but the whole point is: you don’t want to fall behind,” Steenbergen said. The numbers behind the nerves Steenbergen’s comments land as AI capital expenditure forecasts keep climbing. JPMorgan estimates that AI capex will reach $800 billion in 2026 and $1.1 trillion in 2027. AI capex is predicted to eat up about 93% of hyperscalers’ operating cash flow in 2026, compared with 33% in 2023. Morningstar has cited a potential payback period of only three to five years for AI infrastructure, which would mean returns need to show up before 2030. Booking’s more targeted approach Booking Holdings is not sitting out the AI race. Rather than treating AI spending as a goal in itself, the travel company has focused on specific applications that improve the customer experience. In 2025, B...