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The person Bloomberg ranks as the single most accurate dollar-yen forecaster in the world works out of Kolkata, India, uses technical analysis as his primary tool, and thinks USD/JPY is heading to 170. With the pair currently trading around 162, that implies roughly another 5% decline in the yen, a move that would carry consequences well beyond the forex market.
Vikram Murarka of Kshitij Consultancy Services earned Bloomberg’s top spot by doing something most Wall Street desks failed to do: he called the yen’s slide past 160 before it happened. Now he’s saying the ride isn’t over.
Charts over central banks
Murarka’s framework is almost entirely technical, driven by price patterns and trend analysis rather than economic data releases.
Kit Juckes of Societe Generale has made similar observations, noting that projections like these can validly predict “overshoots.” In English: currencies don’t always stop at fair value. They blow past it, especially when momentum traders and algorithmic systems pile into the same directional bet.
The fundamental backdrop doesn’t exactly argue against a weaker yen, either. The US-Japan interest rate differential remains wide. The Bank of Japan, despite years of market expectations for normalization, has offered limited policy responses. Holding yen-denominated assets means accepting a significant yield penalty compared to dollar-denominated alternatives.
Why crypto traders should care about a collapsing yen
The yen carry trade is one of the most important plumbing mechanisms in global finance. Investors borrow in low-yielding yen, convert to dollars or other higher-yielding currencies, and deploy that capital into risk assets. When yen weakness accelerates, it typically means carry trade positions are expanding, which pumps liquidity into speculative markets.
We saw the flip side play out in August 2024, when a surprise Bank of Japan rate adjustment triggered a sharp yen rally and simultaneously cratered risk assets across the board. Bitcoin wasn’t spared.
Japanese authorities have intervened in currency markets before when yen depreciation becomes disorderly. They did it in 2022, and again in 2024. A march toward 170 would almost certainly increase the probability of another intervention, which would create exactly the kind of sudden reversal that forces leveraged positions across all asset classes to liquidate.
The exporter paradox and macro spillovers
Japanese exporters, from Toyota to Sony, benefit enormously from yen depreciation. Their products become cheaper on world markets, and profits earned overseas translate into more yen when repatriated. The Nikkei 225 has historically moved inversely with the yen for exactly this reason.
But import costs surge in tandem. Japan imports the vast majority of its energy, and a weaker yen means higher fuel, food, and raw material prices for domestic consumers and businesses.
For global macro investors, Japan is the world’s largest creditor nation. Japanese institutional investors, particularly life insurers and pension funds, hold enormous positions in US Treasuries and other foreign assets. If Murarka’s 170 target materializes, it could accelerate Japanese institutional repatriation of foreign assets as hedging costs become prohibitive, putting upward pressure on US yields.
What investors should watch
If Japanese policymakers signal tolerance for further depreciation, the carry trade expands, liquidity flows into risk assets, and crypto likely benefits from the tailwind.
If authorities draw a line, whether through verbal intervention, actual market operations, or an unexpected rate hike, the unwind could be swift and indiscriminate. Crypto markets, with their 24/7 trading and thin weekend liquidity, tend to absorb these shocks faster and harder than traditional markets.
Murarka’s track record earned him Bloomberg’s top ranking for a reason. His 170 call, targeting the end of 2027, isn’t a fringe prediction; it’s the base case from the most accurate voice in the room.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
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