2 hours ago
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BlackRock’s IBIT ETF clients purchased $732.6M in Bitcoin last week, accounting for the majority of the ETF’s net inflow. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April sits at 0.2% YES.
Market reaction
Traders are pricing almost no chance of Bitcoin hitting $60,000, with odds at 0.2%. The April 30 contract expires in 6 days, and BlackRock’s $732.6M purchase has reinforced price confidence. The June 30 all-time high market remains at 3% YES, unchanged over the last 24 hours.
Why it matters
Sub-markets for a Bitcoin all-time high by September 30 are more active at 10.5% YES, with $612 in USDC traded daily. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike, suggesting some bettors think BlackRock’s buying could trigger more institutional interest.
Volume analysis shows $3,812 in USDC traded for the April contracts, with $2,581 needed to move the price 5 points. This is a stable market where large orders could still have an outsized impact. The all-time high markets have thinner liquidity, making them more susceptible to strategic trades.
What to watch
BlackRock’s purchase is a bullish signal, but the market isn’t treating it as transformative. At 3¢, a YES share for a new high by June 30 pays $1, a 33.3x return. The question is whether other institutions follow BlackRock into spot Bitcoin ETFs with comparable size.
Watch for Federal Reserve communications and ETF inflow reports. Rate cut signals or sustained institutional buying could shift these odds.
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