Bitwise Sees Bitcoin at $1.6 Million by 2036, but the Forecast Has Big Assumptions

TL;DR: Bitwise Asset Management has raised its long-range Bitcoin price projection to $1.6 million by 2036 in its 2027 capital-market assumptions. The headline will attract attention because it implies a dramatic rise from current levels, but the market should distinguish an investment thesis from a catalyst. Bitwise Asset Management has raised its long-range Bitcoin price projection to $1.6 million by 2036 in its 2027 capital-market assumptions. The firm models annualized growth of 34.3% over the coming decade, based on institutional allocations, demand for scarce assets and constrained new issuance. It says this is an increase from a previous $1.3 million target. A forecast is not a traded price, and those numbers reflect the manager’s own scenario rather than an independently established future outcome. Investors should read the projection alongside the assumptions that could make it wrong. The event and the market response Among the inputs Bitwise highlights is the scale of institutional portfolios, which the firm places around $147 trillion. It argues that a potential allocation of 1% to 5% could imply between $1.5 trillion and $7 trillion of additional demand over time. Those...