Bitcoin’s uptrend towards $80,000 is increasingly attracting bears – but they keep losing

Bitcoin is accelerating toward the $80,000 threshold as market participants navigate a complex intersection of Middle Eastern geopolitics, shifting monetary policy regimes, and a heavily skewed derivatives market.

Data from CryptoSlate shows that the digital asset's surge from recent lows was driven by the temporary diplomatic relief between the US and Iran.

However, the underlying structural data suggests the current price action is as much about forced liquidations as it is about macroeconomic optimism.

Ceasefire relief lifts Bitcoin, but Hormuz risk stays in play

The immediate catalyst for the market’s recovery was President Donald Trump’s Tuesday announcement extending the United States ceasefire with Iran by two weeks.

Framing the government in Tehran as heavily fractured, the Trump administration granted additional time for diplomats to present a unified proposal to halt the broader conflict.

This diplomatic pause previously triggered a substantial relief rally across digital assets. Since the initial announcement last week, Bitcoin has aggressively surged 7% to trade as high as $79,470 as of press time. It has slightly retraced to $78,200 as of press time.

The price performance has helped subdue the immediate panic that gripped markets after Iran initially rejected a second round of peace talks.

However, Iran's continued objections show that the underlying macroeconomic threat is still very much alive.

MasoudPezeshkian, the President of Iran, claimed that “breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations.”

He added:

“The Islamic Republic of Iran has always welcomed and continues to welcome dialogue and agreement. Bad faith, siege, and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiation. The world is witnessing your hypocritical empty talk and the contradiction between your claims and your actions.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains operationally impaired following its closure on April 18, and the US blockade on Iranian ports remains strictly enforced.

For digital assets, this structural overhang of a geopolitical escalation continues to cap risk appetites.

Fed handover becomes the next market variable

As geopolitical anxieties continue to rise, the imminent regime change at the Federal Reserve is rapidly becoming the next critical variable for risk assets.

With current Chair Jerome Powell’s term ending soon, markets are actively studying what a post-Powell central bank could look like under the leadership of nominee Kevin Warsh.

Following his Tuesday confirmation hearings, institutional desks are not simply labeling Warsh as “dovish”; rather, they are analyzing a fundamental restructuring of the central bank's operating mechanics.

During his testimony, Warsh argued for a significantly different inflation framework. He dismissed the rigidity of a 2% spreadsheet target in favor of assessing how inflation impacts consumers at the “dinner table,” suggesting an overhaul of data collection methods.

Furthermore, Warsh explicitly criticized the practice of forward guidance, arguing that telegraphing rate moves handcuffs the Fed from reacting dynamically to changing economic realities.

He also outlined a clear preference for utilizing interest rates as the primary policy tool over balance-sheet activism, noting that asset purchases disproportionately benefit wealthier investors.

Consequently, traders are beginning to price in the possibility of a more agile, forward-looking Federal Reserve. Thomas Perfumo, Kraken's Chief Economist, said:

“Warsh laid the foundation for a more agile, less bureaucratic Fed — one that could move on rate cuts sooner than expected. While this wasn't a back-the-truck moment for risk assets, I think it was a positive signal on balance.”

So, even if an immediate rate cut is not guaranteed at the upcoming April 28 meeting, the prospect of a less bureaucratic institution that responds quickly to shifting economic data is being interpreted as a net positive for liquidity-dependent assets like Bitcoin.

Negative funding and tighter supply are setting up a squeeze

While macroeconomic and geographical variables provide the backdrop, the internal mechanics of the cryptocurrency market explain how Bitcoin can move higher even without clean macroeconomic confirmation.

The current rally is being heavily subsidized by a severely offside derivatives market.

According to data from Alphractal, Bitcoin funding rates have plunged to their most negative levels since 2023, with the seven-day moving average hitting -0.005%. The prevailing sentiment among retail participants is dominated by short bias, fear, and disbelief.

Bitcoin Bull-Bear Sentiment Index (Source: Alphractal)

Historically, such extreme positioning, seen previously during the March 2020 crash and the post-FTX collapse, has reliably signaled a local bottom as the market runs out of willing sellers.

Simultaneously, BTC's exchange supply is tightening at an aggressive pace. Exchange reserves have plummeted to a seven-year low, and global net flows are registering a deep deficit.

Data from CryptoQuant indicates that a “Squeeze Risk Oscillator” tracking major exchanges has reached 0.7925, sitting virtually at the exhaustion alert level.

This combination of extreme short bias and an accelerated drought in exchange inventories has created a volatile powder keg.

Over the past 24 hours, approximately $300 million in short positions were liquidated, according to CoinGlass data.

As BTC prices rise, traders holding leveraged short positions are forced to buy back their contracts to cover their losses, generating artificial demand. This forced repositioning is currently the primary engine driving Bitcoin toward the $80,000 mark.

The real test sits above $80,000

Despite the momentum generated by forced liquidations, the market's ultimate trajectory depends on how it interacts with massive overhead supply.

CryptoQuant data shows the real test for Bitcoin sits firmly above the $80,000 threshold, where behavioral economics and historical cost bases will dictate the next directional move.

Two of the most influential marginal buyer cohorts are currently testing their break-even points. As of this week, the realized price for Bitcoin exchange-traded fund investors stands at approximately $76,400.

Similarly, short-term whales, which are entities holding substantial volume acquired in recent months, have a realized price hovering near $79,600. Both cohorts have been deeply underwater for months, carrying billions of dollars in unrealized losses.

Because of this, $80,000 acts as the first major decision point. When trapped capital finally reaches equilibrium, distribution pressure typically emerges as investors rush to exit positions without taking a loss.

However, an even larger structural wall looms slightly higher. The realized price for the broader cohort of all short-term holders is currently pinned at $83,055.60.

The market is now entering a critical proving ground. If Bitcoin can successfully absorb the anticipated selling pressure from these cohorts and hold above the $83,000 level, the current rally will look increasingly durable, signaling that heavy overhead resistance has flipped to structural support.

Conversely, if the price rejects violently at these thresholds, the entire move will start to look like a temporary relief squeeze into supply, exposing the asset to a deeper, drawn-out capitulation.