Bitcoin may enter accumulation by November, VanEck says

VanEck said on Aug. 18 that Bitcoin may be approaching an accumulation phase after eight of its 12 capitulation indicators remained active as of Aug. 12. Summary Eight of VanEck’s 12 Bitcoin capitulation signals were active on August 12, indicating late cycle stress. All 12 indicators entered capitulation territory during the three months preceding VanEck’s August research update. Long term holder supply dropped 356,534 BTC, leaving 11.84 million BTC untouched for over one year. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETPs absorbed $663 million while realized volatility declined to 27.2% over 30 days. Historical capitulation clusters lagged Bitcoin’s baseline for six months, outperforming only across one year holding periods. The asset manager’s latest report placed the current correction in its tenth month, measured from Bitcoin’s October 2025 peak. VanEck estimated that the next turning point could arrive between September and November if the current cycle follows earlier patterns. However, the firm did not present the historical timetable as a reliable price forecast. VanEck disclosed that it has exposure to Bitcoin and warned that its forward return study uses a small number of heavily overlapping o...