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Bitcoin has posted $2.3 billion in realized losses in what an analyst says is one of the largest capitulation events in history, rivaling its crash in 2021.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) seven-day average realized net losses hit $2.3 billion, analyst IT Tech said in a note on CryptoQuant on Thursday, which it called “one of the largest capitulation events in BTC history, rivaling the 2021 crash, 2022 Luna/FTX collapse, and mid-2024 correction.”
“This puts us in the top 3-5 loss events ever recorded,” IT Tech added. “Only a handful of moments in Bitcoin's history have seen this level of capitulation.”
Bitcoin has dropped nearly 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in October to trade around $66,600, having climbed from a low of of $60,000 on Feb. 6.
Bitcoin sees historical realized losses. Source: CyptoQuantDeep and slow bleed-out could follow
IT Tech said that previously, “extreme loss spikes like this triggered rebounds,” and noted that Bitcoin had briefly rallied above $70,000 on Tuesday, but added, “this could still be the beginning of a deep and slow bleed-out. Relief rallies happen even in prolonged bear markets.”
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CryptoQuant posted to X on Thursday that $55,000 marks Bitcoin’s realized price, which is “historically tied to bear market bottoms.”
“Past cycles saw BTC trade 24% to 30% below this level before stabilizing,” it stated. “When BTC reaches this area, it usually moves sideways before recovering.”
The bear market bottom would be below Bitcoin’s realized price (blue line). Source: CryptoQuantMore time to reach the bottom
Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the recent capitulation event “reflects intense short-term holder panic and washout amid broader macro pressures and a shift into bear market territory.”
“While this level of oversold conditions historically precedes recovery phases, reaching the full bottom may still require additional time and signals from metrics like sustained institutional buying or miner stabilization,” he added.
Ruck targeted potential support emerging in the $40,000 to $60,000 range, “depending on evolving market dynamics,” a figure in line with predictions from other analysts.
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