Bitcoin-gold correlation tops 50% as debt fears return, Grayscale says

Bitcoin has begun moving more closely with gold and less like a technology stock, according to Grayscale research published on Aug. 27, as renewed concerns about U.S. debt and fiscal deficits revive the “debasement trade.” Summary Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold rose above 50% after starting the year near zero overall. Its Nasdaq 100 correlation fell to roughly 33% from more than 60% previously, Grayscale reported. U.S. gross federal debt crossed $40 trillion on August 18, according to Treasury Department data. Correlation measures co-movement, not causation, and can change quickly across different observation periods and markets. Pandl argued renewed scarcity demand could favor Bitcoin but presented no guaranteed price forecast publicly. Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl said Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with gold has climbed above 50%. The measure stood barely above zero at the beginning of 2026. Over the same period, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from more than 60% to approximately 33%. Pandl argued that the change may show investors reconsidering Bitcoin as a scarce monetary asset rather than treating it primarily as a high-risk technology investment...