Bitcoin beats the S&P 500 on most trading days but still loses the month

Bitcoin's relative win rate against the S&P 500 recovered above 50% in recent sessions, up from about one session in five in June, its weakest stretch in roughly six years, according to Glassnode.Coinbase Institutional's Oct. 23 report found BlackRock's IBIT drawing about $6 billion since Aug. 1 against roughly $500 million across all other US spot Bitcoin ETFs, a 92% share of net inflows. Farside Investors’ data extended through Oct. 26 puts the share at 96.3%.A date-matched calculation for October through Oct. 26 shows Bitcoin beating the S&P 500 on 10 of 18 sessions (55.6%). Bitcoin fell 4.25% over the same stretch, and the S&P rose 0.33%, a 4.58% gap in stocks' favor.In its 10 winning sessions, Bitcoin's average edge was about 0.71%, and in its eight losing sessions, its average shortfall was 1.44%, roughly twice as large.A concentrated bid for BitcoinIn the first half of 2026, corporate treasuries bought about $14.5 billion of Bitcoin while US spot ETFs saw almost $5 billion of net outflows. Since August, ETFs have drawn roughly $6.4 billion against about $1.5 billion from treasuries.Farside Investors’ fund-level data shows that from Aug. 3 through Oct. 26, IBIT to...