Bessent says energy prices, mortgages and yields will ease once the Iran conflict ends

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has a message for anyone wincing at the gas pump or a mortgage quote: the pain is temporary. Once the US-Iran conflict wraps up, he says, energy costs, home loan rates and bond yields should all head back toward normal. The catch is the word “once.” Bessent did not offer a timeline for when the fighting might end. That leaves markets holding an optimistic forecast with no expiration date. What Bessent is actually arguing Bessent’s core diagnosis is that today’s financial strain is mostly an energy shock. It is not, in his framing, a sign that the broader economy is breaking down. The shock centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping lane that a large share of the world’s oil has to pass through. According to Bessent, reopening the strait is the key that unlocks everything else. When supply flows again, he expects oil prices to fall, and he has floated a range of $40-50 per barrel as a potential landing zone after the conflict concludes. He also put some numbers on the current inflation picture. Speaking on October 6, 2026, Bessent said headline inflation was approximately 3.5%, while core inflation sat at around 2.3%. The gap between those...