Bernstein praises Circle’s Q2 results, counters bearish concerns with Arc and partnership upside

Circle just posted its Q2 2026 earnings, and Bernstein’s takeaway is essentially: the bears are looking at the wrong spreadsheet. The Wall Street research firm is maintaining its Outperform rating on CRCL, arguing that Circle’s partnerships, regulatory approvals, and its upcoming Arc launch create revenue streams that current consensus estimates simply aren’t capturing. The numbers behind the optimism Circle reported total revenue and reserve income of $701 million for Q2 2026, a 7% year-over-year increase. USDC circulation hit $73.3 billion, up 19% year-over-year. The real jaw-dropper sits in the transaction data: onchain volume surged to $14.8 trillion, a 151% year-over-year increase. The gap between circulation growth (19%) and transaction volume growth (151%) tells you that velocity is accelerating dramatically, meaning each dollar of USDC in circulation is turning over far more frequently than it did a year ago. Arc changes the math Circle raised its full-year other-revenue guidance to $310 million to $330 million, a figure that includes roughly $180 million expected from the Arc token presale. The presale itself has already generated approximately $222 million to $242 million...