Bank of England hawks appear isolated as committee shifts to holding rates steady

The Bank of England’s rate-setting committee just made it clear: the hawks are outnumbered, and the gap is widening. In a 7-2 vote on June 18, the Monetary Policy Committee held the Bank Rate at 3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting at that level. The two dissenters, Chief Economist Huw Pill and external member Megan Greene, wanted a quarter-point hike to 4%. They didn’t get it. The Bank Rate peaked at 5.25% back in August 2023, and the MPC has since cut a total of 1.5 percentage points. Four straight holds at 3.75% suggest the committee is comfortable parking here for a while, even as inflation pressures from Middle East energy disruptions continue to simmer. The hawk caucus is shrinking, not growing Back in April 2026, Pill was the lone dissenter pushing for higher rates. Now Greene has joined him, which on paper looks like the hawkish camp doubled in size. But context matters. Catherine Mann, who has historically leaned hawkish and flagged significant inflation risks, voted with the majority to hold steady. The driving concern for the dissenters is geopolitical. Elevated energy prices tied to Iran-related tensions in the Middle East are feeding into what economists call ...