Baker Hughes warns Strait of Hormuz could remain closed through 2026

Baker Hughes has warned that the Strait of Hormuz could remain closed through 2026, and the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0.5% YES, unchanged from a day ago.

The market for Crude Oil hitting all-time highs by April 30 is at 1.6% YES, down from 2% yesterday. A tight order book, with just $695 needed to move the price 5 points, means this market is thin and reactive. The WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April market shows a similarly low 0.5% YES, with $1,632 required to shift it 5 points, a somewhat thicker book.

Volume over the past 24 hours: the crude oil all-time high market traded $2,513 in USDC, while the WTI $160 market traded $2,023. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM.

Roughly 20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily. A prolonged closure could create stagflation conditions by simultaneously constraining supply and raising input costs across economies. The low odds on both contracts reflect skepticism about immediate price spikes, likely pricing in diplomatic resolution or strategic petroleum releases as probable offsets.

Traders should watch for shifts in US-Iran diplomatic talks, OPEC+ production announcements, or further military developments in the Gulf. Any of these could move these thin markets quickly.

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