Atlanta Fed’s Venable warns inflation remains too high, says easing hinges on Middle East developments

Cheryl Venable, the Atlanta Fed’s relatively new president, delivered a blunt assessment on August 11: inflation is still too high, and the path back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target runs straight through the Middle East. Five years and counting Inflation has now exceeded the FOMC’s 2% target for more than five years. CPI was running at 3.8% year-over-year as of April 2026, according to earlier commentary from Venable. That’s nearly double the Fed’s stated goal. Venable, who stepped into the Atlanta Fed presidency on March 1, 2026, after Raphael Bostic retired, has been vocal about the dual forces shaping the inflation outlook. On one side sits domestic economic data. On the other, a volatile Middle East conflict that threatens to disrupt oil supplies and send energy prices spiraling. Her latest quarterly essay synthesized quantitative economic data with qualitative feedback from regional business contacts. The labor market remains broadly stable, with modest employment growth following what she described as a sluggish period. The Middle East variable The core of Venable’s warning centers on energy markets. Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt oil ship...