Arthur Hayes warns AI equity dilution could pressure Bitcoin prices

The BitMEX co-founder argues that share unlocks at SpaceX and Anthropic may drain liquidity now, but could set up a central bank rescue later Arthur Hayes has a new villain for Bitcoin’s short-term outlook. It isn’t the Fed, a regulator or a rogue exchange. It’s the share count at the world’s most hyped AI and space companies. In his latest essay, titled “D is for Dilution” and released on November 5, 2026, the BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO argues that massive equity unlocks tied to SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could squeeze dollar liquidity. In his view, that is bad news for Bitcoin in the near term, and potentially great news further out. The dilution math Hayes is worried about Start with SpaceX. According to Hayes, the company likely faces roughly 50% additional dilution by June 2027. The driver is approximately 8.6 billion shares set to unlock in that window, mostly stemming from Elon Musk’s vesting. SpaceX listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX in June 2026. The IPO was priced at $135 per share, raised about $75 billion and valued the company at $1.77 trillion. Anthropic’s early backers may have it worse. Hayes estimates those investors could see as much as 83% dilu...