ANZ forecasts RBA to raise cash rate by 25bps in November

ANZ, one of Australia’s four major banks, is calling for the Reserve Bank of Australia to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points at its November 2026 meeting. If correct, it would push the rate to 4.60%, marking the first hike in a cycle that most market participants assumed was already over. The call puts ANZ squarely at odds with the rest of the market. Polymarket odds suggest roughly an 86% probability that the RBA holds steady in November, leaving only a 14% chance of the hike ANZ is forecasting. What the RBA has been signaling The RBA’s August 2026 board minutes revealed something interesting: the central bank’s board actively debated whether a rate hike was warranted to combat lingering inflationary pressures. They ultimately decided to hold the cash rate at 4.35%, but the fact that a hike was on the table at all tells you the RBA hasn’t fully closed the door on tightening. The RBA has consistently communicated that it wants to see inflation sustainably within its 2-3% target band before changing course. Governor Michele Bullock has repeatedly emphasized that decisions will be guided by incoming data rather than predetermined paths. Why ANZ is the outlier The broader consensus...