Anthropic’s Jack Clark says AI could push US GDP to about $44 trillion by 2030

Jack Clark, co-founder of Anthropic, told a room full of finance ministers and central bankers that AI could push US GDP to about $44 trillion by 2030. For context, the US economy today sits at just over $30 trillion. He made the case on October 17, 2026, at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok. He paired the forecast with a call for international regulatory cooperation. Three scenarios, one eye-catching ceiling The projection comes from Anthropic’s internal economic model. The company released it in September 2026 as an economic scenarios explorer. The model lays out three paths to 2030: Modest: US GDP reaches $34.1 trillion, reflecting 1.6% growth. Substantial: GDP rises to $36.3 trillion, reflecting 8.3% growth. Extreme: GDP hits $44.4 trillion, a 32.4% boost. The extreme case assumes AI reaches high levels of autonomy and efficiency. It also requires recursively self-improving AI systems to deliver the full effect. A shorter timeline for self-improving AI Clark also moved up his own forecast for when that loop might arrive. He now expects full recursive self-improvement capabilities by 2027. He tied the updated estimate to faster progress in AI technology. That mat...