AI watchdog report indicates we may have less than 6 months before AI super intelligence arrives

Anthropic's AI models were likely improving on tasks with clear success criteria roughly twice as fast in October 2026 as they did between March 2024 and October 2025, according to a Nov. 5 assessment by METR, an independent model-evaluation group.METR judges that AI assistance probably accounts for most of the recent acceleration. But Anthropic redacted much of the evidence behind that judgment, leaving outsiders with a clearer view of the faster benchmark trend than of what caused it.Anthropic's benchmark trend and AI's roleThe central published measurement uses AECI, Anthropic's version of the Epoch Capabilities Index. METR estimated that AECI's fitted growth rate after October 2025 was 1.9 times its earlier rate, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.5 to 2.8 times. The analysis includes snapshots of unreleased models, so it covers more than the products customers could access.METR interprets that trend as roughly two years of historical benchmark progress achieved in the past year. The 1.9-times fit is distinct from its broader judgment of roughly twice the historical pace on well-specified tasks. That judgment carries substantial uncertainty, including whether the same accelera...