AI IPO Dilution Could Fuel Crypto’s Next Rally, Analyst Warns

Trusted Editorial content, reviewed by leading industry experts and seasoned editors. Ad Disclosure AI IPO dilution is shaping up to be the next big test for markets, and one well-known crypto analyst warns it could shake risk assets before setting up crypto’s next rally. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that public listings of SpaceX, Anthropic and eventually OpenAI could leave investors who buy at the offering price facing steep losses. In a post on X shown below, he previewed his latest essay, “D is for Dilution,” which argues that as insider shares unlock, a wave of new supply could flood the market and drive prices lower. The figures are striking. Hayes estimates that roughly 8.6 billion SpaceX shares could become tradable by June 2027, about half of the current share count. For Anthropic, he calculates that early public investors could face up to 83% dilution over the same period as lockups expire. OpenAI has not filed for an IPO yet, but Hayes expects a similar dynamic if it does. Source: @CryptoHayes (X.com) At first glance, AI IPO dilution sounds bearish for every risk asset, crypto included. In the short term, Hayes thinks it could be. But the full thesis tells a far...