AI capex boom is growing twice as fast as the housing boom did

The last time the U.S. economy saw capital pour into a single sector this fast, it ended with a financial crisis. That comparison is not a prediction. It is, however, the framing that Torsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, is putting on the current AI infrastructure buildout. Slok’s analysis tracks hyperscaler data-center capital expenditures as a share of U.S. GDP. The numbers move quickly: from 0.3% of GDP in 2019, to 1.4% in 2025, and a projected 3.1% by 2027. That two-year jump of 1.7 percentage points works out to roughly 0.85 percentage points per year. Why the housing comparison matters During the housing boom from 2002 to 2005, residential construction added about 0.5 percentage points to its GDP share annually. The AI capex buildout is running at nearly double that pace. To be clear about scale: the housing market’s contribution to GDP peaked at 6.6% in 2005. Data-center capex, even at its 2027 projection, sits at less than half that level. There is another historical data point worth anchoring to. The telecom boom of the late 1990s peaked at around 1.2% of GDP in 2000. The AI buildout is on track to more than double that figure, and it is d...