A December hike would repeat a pattern Bitcoin has lost every time

Bitcoin fell in the month after all seven Fed hikes since 2016 that followed a one-meeting pause. Polymarket and CME FedWatch price an eighth on Dec. 9 at about 67%. The Federal Reserve hiked rates on Sept. 16 and paused on Oct. 28. Markets now price a second hike on Dec. 9. This report examines what that sequence has historically meant for Bitcoin, and how stocks fared alongside it. CB Pro research · Fed special report 0 of 7 Hikes after a pause with Bitcoin higher 30 days later 67.5% Polymarket probability of a Dec. 9 hike −42% Bitcoin, 2018 midterm to the December hike The record is one-sided. Bitcoin finished lower 30 days after all seven Fed hikes since 2016 that immediately followed a one-meeting pause, with a median decline of 2.4%. Stocks were split. In 2018, the same calendar produced a 42% drop in Bitcoin between the midterm election and the December hike. (All prices and odds as of 12:45 p.m. ET on Nov. 5, 2026, unless noted. Historical data through the Nov. 4 close.) Key findings Bitcoin fell in the 30 days after every Fed hike since 2016 that followed a one-meeting pause. The S&P 500 rose in three of those seven instances. 2018 is the closest historical match. The ...